India’s GDP growth rises to 7.2% in December quarter

India grew at a rate of 7.2% in the December quarter (Q3), riding on a pick up in manufacturing. The number is a breather for an economy recovering from twin policy shocks of note ban in November 2016 and GST rollout on 1 July 2018.The data is also a booster for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces criticism over mounting bad loans of state banks and a $1.77 billion fraud at state lender Punjab National Bank PNB, the biggest in the country’s banking history.Last week, Modi told industrialists that his government, which got a “twin balance sheet” problem resulting from bad debt in banks and many businesses, was determined to put the economy back on a higher growth trajectory.Modi is trying to accelerate growth through higher state spending including $32.36 billion for recapitalisation of state banks, beset with mounting bad loans of nearly $148 billion.He has stepped up spending on infrastructure and welfare projects to boost growth ahead of national elections in 2019. This has widened the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year, ending in March, to 3.5 percent of GDP, instead of the earlier projected 3.2 percent.In November, Moody’s raised India’s investment grade rating one notch, the rating agency’s first upgrade in nearly 14 years.India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 for the first time in World Bank’s Doing Business report 2018.The International Monetary Fund forecasts India’s economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018 and 7.8 percent in 2019, overtaking rates projected for China of 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.The world’s seventh largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent a year from 2005 through 2008, is still far from firing on all cylinders. Domestic demand and private investment remain weak.RBI governor Urjit Patel earlier this month said the economic recovery was at a nascent stage and called for a cautious approach. The central bank has kept its key rate unchanged since a 25 basis points cut in August. India’s investment rate fell close to 30 percent of GDP in 2017 from a peak of 40 percent in 2011.New Delhi is worried that higher global crude oil prices pose a major risk to its efforts to regain growth momentum as this could hit domestic investment and push up consumer price inflation.

from The Economic Times http://ift.tt/2CoHhK4