The factors that will decide which way India goes after May

Election victories in three states and a coalition government in Karnataka have made the Congress aggressive, fancying its chances of leading an alliance at the Centre in 2019. But it’s not going to be an easy battle with the BJP, still the main formidable political force, and the NDA going strong despite some defeats. ET looks at some of the issues set to dominate the political box office in the run-up to the general elections.Farm, farmers & loan waiver 67331325 The issue: There is a growing perception, fanned effectively by the Opposition, that the Centre has not done enough for farmers, especially on complaints about not getting the right price for their crop, lack of irrigation and affordable power.Significance: The recent Assembly elections have revealed that farm distress is an important electoral issue, and in many cases, a deal breaker for the electorate.Congress has countered populist measures such as one-time loan waivers. Party line: Congress has banked on farm loan waivers in successive elections. In the wake of suicides in Maharashtra’s parched Vidarbha region, Congress had announced complete farm loan waiver ahead of 2009 parliamentary elections.BJP, however, has always termed it as a quick-fix (the PM called it a lollipop) and has advocated long term reforms. Its promise of MSP for kharif crop at one and a half times the cost of production has not been implemented effectively.National security ki jung 67331336 The issue: It’s been a mixed bag for the government on the security front. While efforts to improve relations with Pakistan have not worked, despite an initial personal approach by the PM, the narrative of a strong government was boosted by the publicly announced surgical strikes into Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. A strong approach in tackling terrorism in Kashmir was adopted after the Pathankot attack.Significance: The government comes across as one having a no-nonsense approach on national security. That there has been no major terror attack on an Indian city in the past four years has been a big feather in the cap for the government.Party line: The surgical strikes, as well as the terror-free record will be the big planks the party is likely to go in for when it comes to elections.The surgical strikes are being showcased as a unique military achievement. Congress has sought details of the kills during the operation to puncture the government claims.The minority report 67331349 The issue: Muslims are evidently among the most restless social segments. As a community, they feel they have been divided due to vote bank politics and now somewhat marginalised on the larger political scene.Significance: The community would gain the most the in a grand alliance-like situation against the BJP, preventing a split of the minority vote. However, the BJP’s rise has ensured that the community finds it difficult to obtain tickets.The party line: The BJP line is ‘sabka saath sabka vikaas’, where it claims that no individual is discriminated on basis of religion. It terms UPA’s policies as one of minority appeasement. But increased incidents of mob lynching and cow protection have polarised the heartland.Mandir, cow & polarisation 67331364 The issue: Ratcheting up the Ram Temple issue has led to voices of Hindutva and polarisation gaining ground in the BJP. RSS affiliates hope it will consolidate the Hindu votes overriding the caste support of some regional parties.Significance: The frenzy around the Ram temple at Ayodhya has helped BJP electorally in the past. Cow protection issue has also helped whip up passions though Hindus have also lost l ives during riots. The Bulandshahr incident is a case in point.The party line: BJP has officially maintained it will wait for the Supreme Court verdict on the Ram temple issue. Though the party has condemned cow slaughter related violence, mob lynching and riots, many of its own lawmakers have made controversial remarks in support of the acts or perpetrators.The ‘welfare’ hook 67331372 The issue: BJP believes key schemes of the Narendra Modi government have reached nearly 22 crore beneficiaries across the country and this will bolster its chances in the general elections. The party had got 17 crore votes in 2014.Significance: The focus is to complete all key schemes by March 2019- 10 lakh toilets, one crore houses under the PM Awas Yojana, electrifying 2.5 crore households under Saubhagya and cover 10 lakh people under Ayushman Bharat insurance scheme. Six crore gas cylinders have already been distributed under Ujjwala.Party line: Har Garib Ko Ghar, Usme Bijli, Cylinder aur Toilet - this seems to be BJP’s campaign line. But Congress has alleged that government makes tall claims on delivery of the schemes and is only chasing numbers.Notebandi, tax & naukri 67331385 The issue: While the Modi government has been lauded by some for taking risks and bringing in the Goods and Services Tax, it has drawn flak for demonetisation that adversely affected the GDP. The various slabs under GST and the way it was implemented have also faced flak. The government is also under attack on its promise of two crore jobs a year.Significance: The Opposition has targeted the NDA government on these three issues and its impact did gain some traction in the recent Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.These three issues will be raked up again in the general elections.Party line: BJP still maintains that demonetisation served its purpose of moving India into a digital economy, curbing black money and crippling Naxalism.But now, some that were part of the government till recently, too have openly questioned the rationale behind demonetization.On the GST, PM and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley have lately indicated that GST rates of over 95 per cent items may be brought in the 18 per cent slab. Congress has announced it will launch a modified and revamped GST if it is voted to power.On unemployment, BJP claims the government has been able to generate new opportunities both in the organised and unorganised sectors, besides creating several self-employment opportunities.The Opposition has, however, challenged the government over employment data and job growth under.Tug Of war for Dalit votes 67331395 The issue: BJP’s effort to woo Dalits in the last four years has faced challenges due to increasing cases of Dalit atrocities, cow slaughter controversy and the government’s dilly-dallying on the SC/ST Atrocities Act changes as well as the implementation of reservation in promotion.Significance: Dalits and tribals account for big numbers and have a direct bearing on any election outcome. In 2018, the Centre found itself in a tight spot with a March 20 Supreme Court judgement which banned automatic arrests under SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. In Madhya Pradesh elections, BJP tried to balance both the upper castes and the Dalits.Party line: Dalits and tribals have traditionally been counted as a Congress vote-bank. However, through concerted educational and social interventions spearheaded by a vast RSS network, BJP has made successful inroads into this block of voters. Over the last three years, both BJP and Congress have been entangled in a vicious political slugfest to appropriate the legacy of Dalit icon Dr B R Ambedkar.The gender agenda 67331402 The issue: Women have been at the centre of most welfare schemes launched by the Modi government. These include the Swachch Bharat scheme, Ujjwala, Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana, Poshan Abhiyan and Indradhanush for the health of women and children and Jana Dhan Yojana for financial security.On women’s rights, from the #MeToo movement that saw Union minister MJ Akbar losing his position in government to the uproar over the Kathua rape case and the rape and violence against a Dalit girl by a BJP MLA in Uttar Pradesh, the Modi government has found itself cornered on the issue of women safety.Significance: With women being almost half the voter base in the country today, BJP has been consistently working on building a voter base among women. Increasingly women are outnumbering men at casting votes in the elections.The party line: BJP has been consistently projecting itself as trying to improve the quality of life among women and has asked women’s wings of all state units to propagate its schemes at booth level. Congress and the opposition have flagged atrocities against women and failure to bring the Women’s Reservation Bill as government’s lack of sincerity on the issue.BJP introduced the death penalty for crimes of sexual abuse against minors, brought laws to help married women abandoned by NRIs and even made possession and transaction of pornography punishable offences.Rahul Gandhi’s Hindu card 67331428 The issue: Rahul Gandhi’s “temple run” that began with Gujarat elections, intensified during the Karnataka polls. This trend is expected to gain more vigour in the run-up to Lok Sabha polls.Significance: Though Gandhi also visited some mosques, churches and gurudwaras, it was his ‘temple run’ that worked as the TRP booster, inviting the charge of playing the ‘soft Hindutva’ card.The party line: Gandhi’s temple run evoked mixed reactions; BJP became more belligerent, but the Congress strategists are happy and even moved further to make Rahul a janeu dhaari (one who wears the sacred thread). He has now declared his gotra too.Of EVMs & paper trail 67331437 The issue: The loser raising issues about credibility of EVMs and VVPATs.Significance: In an era when machine and data manipulation are seen as the biggest possible threat to conduct of free and fair elections, the credibility of India’s upcoming elections depends heavily on the sanctity of the EVMs and VVPATs.The EC has so far fought back political attacks with awareness drives and dialogues with political parties. Recent election results where incumbent governments have been voted out have also helped it find a breather.However, in a Lok Sabha election that is expected to be a hot contest, it is unlikely that attacks against the EVM and VVPAT will abate.The party line: The Opposition parties -largely across party lines- have openly challenged the neutrality of the machines, gone public airing their deep suspicions about machine manipulation, gone to court and issued memorandums on the subject. They have even gone on to demand a return to the ballot paper.To ensure that voter confidence remains intact despite political rhetoric, the EC cannot afford any let up on the EVM or the VVPAT front. That the BJP lost in the recent state polls will be cited as an example EVM efficacy.Talaq to triple talaq 67331443 The issue: After Supreme Court banned the practice of Triple Talaq as violative of fundamental rights, the contentious bill criminalising instant divorce by Muslim men was passed in the Lok Sabha amid a heated debate on December 27.Significance: The Opposition has been opposing the bill saying it was aimed at penalising Muslim men rather than protecting the rights of Muslim women and have sought that it be sent to a select committee for further scrutiny.The party line: BJP claims that the effort is simply to put an end to the misery of Muslim women.Congress has alleged that the bill intends to target the Muslim community.Scam Vs scam 67331450 The issue: The government, until the clean chit by the SC, was under serious Opposition fire on the Rafale fighter jet deal.Congress president Rahul Gandhi led the charge with direct allegations of crony capitalism against the prime minister. But the SC order quashing the demand for a probe has come as a shot in the arm for the BJP, which has countered Rafale onslaught by revival of the VVIP chopper scam against the Congress first family through a successful extradition of middleman Christian Michel from Dubai.Besides this, the flight of businessmen Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi and the NPA crisis of the financial sector have also gained traction. Significance: The spate of allegations are targeted denting PM Modi’s image as a spotless administrator who cracks down on corruption, while the BJP riposte aims at the issue closer home to the leadership of ‘dynastic’ parties. The theme of `suit boot ki sarkar’ and ‘chowkidar chor hai’ is aimed at spreading a narrative that the government works for the rich, an important factor in the battle for the mass votes.Party line: The government has fought back through the VVIP chopper probe in which Michel has been allegedly throwing up big names from the UPA. The extradition order from the UK for Mallya has also helped.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2LGBXU7