Why 2019 is a big challenge for Brand Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face perhaps the biggest challenge of his political career in 2019 when he fights a buoyant Congress-led Opposition for another term, and shows his diplomatic skills in accommodating present alliance partners and winning new friends. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections will be a referendum on Modi’s work as Prime Minister in the last five years. He launched many welfare schemes, repackaged some from the previous dispensation and his government has claimed on every occasion that these measures have reached more people than in any previous regime. These claims will be put to test when BJP goes to the electorate in the April-May elections.The Prime Minister will also have to reinvent himself as a coalition builder this year and shed his “presidential” style of functioning. Till now Modi has worked as a one-man army who keeps himself above the party. Those close to him maintain that he is a good listener but takes his own decisions. His ministers have little role in decision making and mostly follow the diktat of their boss.As the opposition parties join hands to take on the saffron brigade and the anti-incumbency takes effect, BJP and its present NDA partners may fall short of the majority mark. In such a scenario, BJP will have to look for new post poll allies who would demand their pound of flesh.Modi and his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah do not have the reputation of taking allies along and most NDA partners have sulked in the last four and a half years. Shah has begun placating the allies and walking the extra mile to keep them in the NDA fold. Modi may have to make some effort to get new partners after the elections.The bigger hurdle for Modi may come when the prospective allies demand that they will support the BJP provided he is not the Prime Minister. Modi has the image of a Hindu hardliner despite his “sabka saath, sabka vikas” slogan. His polarising speeches during elections undo some of the statements he has made during peace time. With BJP fighting a tough general election, there are clear signs that it will play up the Hindutva card.Though the hypothesis of 'Modi not being PM if BJP falls short of numbers but is close to poll position' comes into play only after elections, it is not being ruled out in political circles. Some senior leaders in the BJP fancy their chances of stepping into Modi’s shoes in such a scenario. Murmurs about which BJP leader enjoys more acceptability across parties are heard often in political circles these days.Modi is BJP’s biggest hope in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the party is banking heavily on his popularity. Even in states where the BJP lost Assembly elections, many voters still said they may vote for him in the general elections. However, the invincibility of the BJP under Modi has been shattered due to these defeats.BJP has lost Assembly elections in Delhi, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh post 2014. In Karnataka, a post-poll alliance between Congress and JD(S) kept BJP out of power. That the recent election defeats have been at the hands of the Congress in a direct fight is worrisome for BJP.The Modi versus Rahul Gandhi presidential form of contest in the elections that BJP hopes for is also not a cakewalk anymore. The jibes against Gandhi do not evoke the same support now. Gaffes on the part of Modi and other BJP leaders and election defeats at the hands of the Congress since Gandhi became party chief have blunted these attacks.Gandhi has also not shied away from directly attacking Modi. In the Lok Sabha, he took the PM by surprise when he walked up to him and gave him a hug. He has made an unrelenting attack on Modi on the Rafale and Nirav Modi issues. His “suit-boot ki Sarkar” and “Chowkidar chor hai” remarks against the PM forced BJP on the backfoot.But Modi is known for springing a surprise on his opponents, and his die-hard supporters are hopeful he will pull out a rabbit before the 2019 elections. All eyes are on him.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2F16H12