Data under NDA government has zero credibility: Chidambaram

Budgets alone do not win elections and people approach an Interim Budget with scepticism, P Chidambaram is forceful when he says it. He is deeply critical of NITI Aayog, even calling for his abolition. The former finance minister spoke on a host of issues in an interview with ETNow. Edited excerpts:ETNow: Even as you try and create jobs, people are curious and yesterday, people were curious to know are you going to use the Tendulkar Committee Report on identifying poverty? How are you going to identify the poor?P Chidambaram: We have massive data. We have not used big data so far. We have got the estimates made by Tendulkar, then Rangarajan made some estimates, we have got the SECC. We have got the NSSO survey, we have got the chief statistician revised data that will be published in June 2019. He said that four days ago. Let us wait for those data. The states have their own data. And for various schemes, you have gathered data for Ayushman Bharat.You claim to have gathered data, for the National Food Security Act. Therefore, there is massive data. The point is people who are familiar with data analysis will have to now devise the criteria to decide what percentile of India’s population is poor and deserves to be helped under our MIG programme. Let us assume for the sake of argument, I do not know the exact number, that bottom 20 per cent is poor but the bottom 20 per cent is not uniformly poor. The bottom 1 per cent is even poorer than the 20th percentile. Therefore, the idea is to bring everybody to a certain minimum level of income, which is why I have been emphasising the word progressive MIG so that everybody is brought to a minimum level of income. After that if the family escapes the trap of poverty and makes more money, I am very happy, but we want to bring everybody to a minimum level of income.ET Now: In principle, I agree with the fact that some Indians who are extremely poor need a helping hand and there can be no two ways about it.P Chidambaram: Let me add one thing. This is the exact same principle as a minimum wage. How do developed countries ensure nobody falls below poverty line because all employment there is in the organised sector and they are smaller countries, they fix a minimum wage so that nobody can be hired for a wage below the minimum. It is the same principle that everybody is assured a minimum level of income.ET Now: What would you say to critics who say the Congress is going back to its tried and tested formula, which is to dole out entitlement-based schemes?P Chidambaram: This is not a dole, I resent the use of the word dole for this. This is our obligation. You see we could not have done it 20-30 years ago why, because the size of our GDP was not big enough, the size of our annual revenue was not...ET Now: Do you think we have the fiscal elbow room?P Chidambaram: Yes, yes, I can do maths for you but I would not do it, we do it in the manifesto. ET Now: And you can achieve comfortably a fiscal deficit target and do this?P Chidambaram: Yes. The size of our GDP gives us that level of comfort where we can try this bold idea. We could not have done it 20 years ago, I admit that.ET Now: Some of the macroeconomic data are causing a lot of discomfort and some of them do not gel with anecdotal evidence on the ground or other competing data, our jobs figure is not good according to a draft that has been “leaked” but our growth is highest in those years. As a former finance minister, do you believe the credibility of data is under question?P Chidambaram: Zero credibility. This is the magic of the NDA government.ET Now: But can any government fudge data?P Chidambaram: They have. They have. When real data come, they have got two swashbuckling heroes who come and debunk it, they have got them in the NITI Aayog. And the NIIT Aayog blessed data is fake data, so pronounced former chief statisticians and a larger number of economists. When NSSO data come, they come up with this wonderful theory that the Cabinet must approve it. When has the Cabinet approved NSSO data? When has the Cabinet authorised the release of CSO data? As finance minister, I used to get the CSO data half an hour before it was released.ET Now: Really?P Chidambaram: Yes. And I suppose they are following the same pattern and they will only give me that growth figure for the quarter, they would not give me the full data but they will send me the first copy of the printed data but they will tell you the growth figure half an hour before it is released.ET Now: Do you believe questions are raised and there is suspicion because there is involvement of NITI Aayog and they should keep out of data management?P Chidambaram: NITI Aayog should be abolished. NITI Aayog is a meddler, inter-meddler. NITI Aayog has no business in the scheme of things, what is NITI Aayog’s mandate, what is it doing?ET Now: Just what the commission before it was doing, Planning Commission?P Chidambaram: No, no, no. The Planning Commission was mediating between the Centre and states, was mediating between the finance ministry and other departments. The Planning Commission was playing an important role. I do not agree with all the things the Planning Commission did, I do not believe in very detailed five-year plans but Planning Commission played the role as a mediator between the Centre and states.Please ask any finance minister of a state, even the BJP finance minister, he will tell you the Planning Commission helped mediate between the Centre and the states. And you ask any minister, any secretary, he will tell you the Commission mediated between the finance ministry and the departments.ET Now: Are you telling me that you did not like anything about this budget, there must have been something that...P Chidambaram: No, no, why should I say I do not like anything about the Budget.ET Now: Then what did you like about this Budget?P Chidambaram: Well, what I liked about the Budget is it is the last budget, mercifully there would not be another one. But for example, they have at least maintained a sedate pace of growth on the major items of expenditure. On one or two, they have slashed it sharply, but they have maintained defence, usual one about ICDS, National Social Assistance Programme all that is maintained. But we need to look at the numbers more carefully because, for example, the pension scheme they have announced is after hacking the existing pension scheme I am told. I think we will have to see what they have withdrawn quietly and what they have introduced in its place, giving the impression that there are two schemes, the old one and the new one.ET Now: So, you are telling me the Atal Jeevan Bima Yojana...P Chidambaram: I do not know I will have to look into it. I am not making any statement, I have not had the time to do a detailed study but we will do that study.ET Now: Whose Budget this really is, is it Modi’s Budget, is this Jaitley’s Budget or is this Goyal’s Budget?P Chidambaram: Well, I do not think anyone can claim full rights to this Budget. The prime minister must have indicated what according to him are the mandatory inclusions in the Budget and I think the maths must have been done when Jaitley was here and Goyal must have put it together in the last weeks. The last two weeks are very crucial and since Goyal was in the chair, I suppose he put it together.ET Now: Can Budgets win elections?P Chidambaram: Budgets alone do not win elections, budgets can provide a backdrop which you can go and tell people this is what you can expect for the next five years. See a regular Budget can win elections. It is widely believed that the loan waiver in the 2008 Budget helped us greatly, not entirely, helped us greatly to win the election because we told the farmers that we are coming to your succour. But people approach an Interim Budget with scepticism, they start by saying before the finance minister rises to say Madam Speaker they know that this is an election oriented Budget. Therefore, everything is looked at through a lens of suspicion and scepticism. I think this scepticism deepened as Goyal was reading the speech... You look at the reactions, I have not looked at every channel but in the social media and on the channels I am told the farmers are saying what jumla is this, he is giving us Rs 2,000 now, this is the classic cash for vote. 67805860 67793334 67793775

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2TuA0xc