The Taliban question takes centrestage

I would not support sharing intelligence with that organisation (Taliban),” Mark Milley, chairman of US joint chiefs of staff, told a US Congress House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. This was even as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo led a group of international “interested bystanders” at a US-Taliban peace agreement signing ceremony in Doha on Saturday. That tells you, if nothing else, that the future of Afghanistan, Taliban, Pakistan and the US is anything but settled. India’s presence at the Doha signing is in a sense a coming out of the closet on the Taliban question, its role in Afghanistan, terrorism and Pakistan’s role. The peace agreement throws up as many questions as it answers. Is it about negotiating a safe passage for US troops as they leave Afghanistan, fulfilling a Trump election promise in another election year?Will the Taliban toil through negotiations with President Ashraf Ghani’s government to start an intra-Afghan dialogue? The Taliban have so far shown scant interest in discussions and have refused to recognise the elected government in Kabul. Ghani (as well as Abdullah Abdullah, former chief executive of the Unity Government) has readied teams to start the dialogue process. The agreement stipulates such a dialogue start within 10 days . The US is insistent — as is India and some other countries — on these talks. The worry is that the Taliban may start the talks but could ensure they run out of juice. A related question is whether the Taliban would adhere to the current Afghan constitution at all. After all, they call themselves an emirate and have through the negotiations insisted on doing things according to the Sharia law.Ghani’s government is in itself a problematic space, especially as the election results were contentious. India and the European Union welcomed Ghani’s re-election. The US merely “noted” it, while Pakistan did not bother to acknowledge it. That could have implications for the peace talks. Pakistan, the Taliban’s principal backer, would want to keep the group as the dominant power centre in Kabul. Saturday is an important day for Pakistan. They have “delivered” the Taliban and the peace deal with the US. The Pakistan foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, was candid: “Pompeo told me that the pathway to fixing relations between Pakistan and US came through Kabul. Now I would like to remind him that we have fulfilled all our promises.” For Pakistan, this is payback time. At least the US State Department is conscious of it. Alice Wells, the senior diplomat for this region, said, “We appreciate the steps Pakistan has taken to advance the Afghan peace process.”For India, it is time to prepare and secure. With foreign secretary Harsh Shringla dashing to Kabul the day before the signing and reposing faith in the elected government, it is clear what route India will take. It has served New Delhi well to keep the consistency going. There are voices within India — including Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat — that say India should join the “bandwagon” and “talk” to the Taliban. Thus far, the idea has few takers within the Indian establishment. No amount of talking to the Taliban is going to make them any more accepting of India, certainly not while they remain in the thrall of Pakistan’s ISI.If the Taliban come to power in Kabul, India’s support of the legitimately elected government will stand it in good stead. But will the Taliban submit to elections? At this point, we can be forgiven for our deep scepticism. The other imponderable is the ISIS, which has been growing in Afghanistan. As some Afghan intelligence officials have clarified, the Taliban and ISIS have a “flexible” relationship — they fight each other in the areas adjoining Pakistan, while sharing resources, etc, in the more remote north. But there is another practical view. As Jayant Prasad, former envoy to Afghanistan, said, “The deal being signed today is between the US and the Taliban/Pakistan, even if Pakistan is not a signatory. India should welcome it as this is bound to mark the beginning of a distancing between the Taliban and Pakistan, as also between the US and Pakistan, despite their great mutual dependency in the short term.”The real problem for India will come from the jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan, which can now be turned towards Kashmir. As the commander of Srinagar-based 15 Corps, Lt Gen KJS Dhillon, warned this week, the PoK launchpads are full and infiltration has already begun. That means India would be preparing for yet another military response to Pakistani terror.Diplomatically, India has ramped up its security conversations with Iran, a key partner against Sunni extremism from Afghanistan. India has also strengthened ties with five Central Asian states who are wary of the Taliban, Pakistan and ISIS — not always in that order. Primarily, though, India will have to secure its borders, increase surveillance and improve intelligence. There is really no substitute for this in a region that could turn either way. We hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

from Economic Times https://ift.tt/3ahkMDY