View: Biden or Trump, Who’s better for India?

By Sumit GangulySome within India’s chattering classes seem convinced that a Biden presidency bodes ill for India. Their misgivings, it appears, stem from some adverse comments that both former vice-president Joseph Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, have made about the state of human rights in Jammu & Kashmir. They also stem from his criticism of NRC and CAA.Obviously, these criticisms may well pique segments of India’s attentive public. That said, it would be a critical error to assume that a handful of statements made on the campaign trail are somehow indicative of the overall orientation of Biden’s likely foreign policy towards India. Instead, it is worth examining his prior record as well as his general foreign policy stance to glean some meaningful clues about his possible India policy. More to the point, it is vital to contrast his foreign policy outlook with incumbent President Donald Trump’s record.At the outset, it needs to be underscored that Biden would bring a wealth of knowledge of and experience with foreign policy. For decades he had not only served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but had, on more than one occasion, served as its chair. Consequently, he is no stranger to vital issues in contemporary international politics.His background and experience stand out in marked contrast to those of Trump. Unlike Biden, who has a sophisticated understanding of world politics, Trump entered the presidency with a set of simplistic views about the world. Once in office he used his vast prerogatives to upend a range of commitments and policies which had, for the most part, enjoyed support across American ideological divides. To that end he withdrew from Nafta, from the Paris climate change accords and even questioned the utility of Nato, a virtual cornerstone of American security policy since the early days of the Cold War.Nor for that matter, despite his seeming bonhomie with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has he displayed much sensitivity and finesse in dealing with India. His maladroit dealings with India are especially shocking given the attention that Modi had lavished on him at events in Ahmedabad and in Houston, Texas.He has placed tariffs on a range of Indian goods, through an executive order he has frozen H-1B and H-4 (spousal visas) until the end of the year, and he has harangued India to reduce tariffs on trivial American exports such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles. He seems unaware that a mere 4,000 or so are sold in India annually and that the firm employs no more than 5,000 workers in the US.Nor, for that matter have his statements on critical, sensitive issues of Indian foreign and security policy displayed any adroitness. In the wake of the Pulwama terrorist attack and its aftermath he offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute. Worse still, he stated, without a shred of evidence, that Modi had asked him to offer his good offices. Not content with this contretemps, in the wake of the Galwan valley PLA incursions and the ensuing standoff, he again offered to help settle the dispute.His willingness to start a trade war with India and his ham-handed attempts to burnish his credentials as a negotiator aside, Trump has also shrunk the scope of the US-India partnership. Under both Democratic and Republican predecessors, the relationship had been multi-dimensional ranging from cooperation in counterterrorism to jointly combating child trafficking. Under Trump’s watch the focus has been primarily on the security arena with two issues being accorded foremost importance – weapons sales to New Delhi, and prodding it to serve as a counterweight to the PRC. In effect, his view of the relationship is almost wholly transactional. India is of no intrinsic value to the United States.A Biden foreign policy, in marked contrast to Trump’s parochial approach, would restore a multi-faceted relationship with India. For example, instead of merely informing India about the US withdrawal efforts from Afghanistan, it could well reach out to India to help stabilise the country even as the US seeks to reduce its military footprint in the country.It is presently unclear what stance it would adopt towards the now-abandoned Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. However, it appears reasonable to surmise that a Biden presidency would attempt to resuscitate the now-moribund agreement. In this context, it is also unlikely to keep exerting concerted pressure on India to all but sever its long-standing ties with Iran.Nor is a Biden presidency likely to try and insert itself into areas which are laden with political minefields such as India’s on-going disputes with Pakistan and the PRC. Years of experience in dealing with delicate foreign policy issues as well as a willingness to heed the advice of foreign policy professionals, who are knowledgeable about the intricacies of South Asian politics, are likely to guide his decisions.On a more practical note, as someone who has long valued the contributions of generations of immigrants to the US, it can well be expected that he will dispense with Trump’s crude and disingenuous attempts to curb immigration through limiting visas. Nor, for that matter, will he sustain the pointless trade spat that Trump has initiated with India.It is true Biden and Harris have expressed concerns about the state of human rights in Kashmir. Yet to pin their likely foreign policy posture towards India on their views about a single, albeit fraught, issue overlooks much evidence that offers hope for a rejuvenated and more cordial partnership.(The writer holds the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, Bloomington)

from Economic Times https://ift.tt/3cN08ho