View: Can the Quad meet give anchor?

The upcoming Quad summit will be closely watched for clear answers and resolute commitments that go beyond rhetorical flourishes and repetitive pronouncements. The fact that Joe Biden is hosting the September 24 meeting despite huge domestic and international problems — from a Covid-19 surge to Democratic Party fissures to Afghanistan — is a signal. His team wants to show its commitment to the idea and agenda of the Quad.The first in-person meeting will give the four leaders a chance to discuss issues virtual meets don’t allow. Apart from furthering the Quad promises on vaccine delivery, new technologies and climate change initiatives, they will discuss Afghanistan, Pakistan and China. Therein lies the meat.In Afghanistan, the Taliban, with Pakistan’s able assistance, are poking a finger at the world every which way possible. From producing a government littered with sanctioned terrorists to entombing women in black robes, the extremist fantasy is playing out. Videos of beatings of journalists and lashing of women are too numerous to be ignored. You don’t need imagination to predict the future.Any rationalisation of the stark reality would be delusional. Biden has a special responsibility, given the reputational damage he suffered from the shambolic withdrawal. Antony Blinken’s grilling by Republicans on Monday was a small measure of Biden’s political difficulties. Along with other Quad leaders — Narendra Modi, Scott Morrison of Australia and Yoshihide Suga of Japan — he must give a clear signal on Afghanistan. Hopefully, they will maintain sanctions, delay recognition and continue the freeze on assets.Even China and Russia are adjusting their enthusiastic positions after the Taliban’s ‘inclusive’ (sic) government was revealed. Iran was upset enough to come out in the open. The glee about America’s defeat by the Taliban-ISI axis is wearing off. Moscow seems clearly worried about fanaticism creeping into Central Asia, and Beijing wonders if its client Pakistan can actually deliver the goods.Last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov talked about a consolidation of the ‘terrorist underground or semi-underground’ in Central Asian states, the most vulnerable being Tajikistan. The US has certainly lost, but ‘probably everyone, except for the Taliban, is at a disadvantage’. That’s realisation. not schadenfreude, and qualifies as progress. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi wants Taliban to prove themselves with actions before opening the purse strings.India and Russia have been talking about Afghanistan, and seem to have inched closer towards a joint approach. Iran’s new Foreign Minister Hossein Abdollahian is in regular touch with S Jaishankar, and the two will meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, this week. Can a trilateral understanding develop on Afghanistan? Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s special envoy, who took special pleasure in keeping India out of the Troika talks attended by Pakistan, China and the US in Qatar on August 11, is a little less voluble. In the end, the mechanisms he constructed produced little or negative results.India is spending new diplomatic energy on Russia, and it may be time for Biden to spend some too. Moscow will be an easier courtship than Beijing. Biden called Xi Jinping last week after a string of US officials met the Great Wall of Chinese intransigence. The 90-minute call was described as ‘candid’, but whether it produced results is unclear. Xi is unlikely to be snowed by Biden’s personal diplomacy.The Chinese insulted John Kerry last week by speaking with him only by video even though he was in China. Only a junior went to meet Kerry in person. They put Wendy Sherman, the No 2 in the State Department, through the ringer last month. All meetings so far, including the first in Alaska on March 18-19, have gone badly.The Biden strategy to isolate climate change from a plethora of contentious issues with China and make progress is not working. A rethink is desperately needed. The Chinese are insulting and lecturing the Americans at every opportunity. The Biden administration appears desperate for a deal, while the Chinese exploit divisions within the Democratic Party. The Dem left wing thinks the hullabaloo over Chinese interference is taking away from the ‘people’s agenda’. Nothing sillier can be imagined, but that’s where the party is.In light of the above, the Quad should think a little differently about its desire to maintain a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. Yes, do the vaccines. But, at the same time, do something to hold China to account for full transparency on the origins of the virus.

from Economic Times https://ift.tt/3Cbmi8p